Tuesday, September 18, 2012

N K E - Peak Oil, and why you should be scared (Just playing) (K)

Obama, and an Oil Hammer. Obama doesn't have anything to do with this article, but it's a good picture.

You're now reading this, and probably thinking I am about to say we won't ever run out of oil.

Nope. Won't say that. Ask me again.

Now - Will we run out of oil you ask? Sure. Thing is gents, it won't happen until the worms have long stopped crawling out of your skull.

Peak Oil Theory, in actuality, is true. However, the time frame estimates, and the projections for oil depletion are where the bullshit starts to come into play. Over the last decade, the projections for oil depletion have been extremely skewed at best, and at worse misrepresented on purpose to prove a point when the presenters in fact know they are lying their asses off.

Obviously, with crude oil prices quadrupling over a 4 year period toward the end of the last decade, and gas prices sky rocketing, everyone is debating energy usage as of late, in any form.  Green technology initiatives and "LEED" technologies are at the top of the list for spending and conversation.

Peak Oil, for you "folks" as W liked to say, is the theory that crude oil production will peak at X amount of barrels per day, and slowly production will keep falling until it practically is not produced.

Proponents of this theory say we are done for, as far as using oil as our main source of energy within the next 20 years. That's the short of it, and the theory has proven right in most cases. The US being a good example, the prediction was crude oil production would peak in the 70's. Indeed, US oil production has not been higher than it was in the early 70s, and ever since then it has declined, and is still dropping.

Should we all assume life as we know it is over? Well, as the jolly Communist I am, I tell you no, my fellow people. I say no with conviction and a fat arm raised to the sky as if I were reaching for some sort of cold sugar filled drink in the middle of the desert. I will explain the reasoning in the rest of this rant.

Gas prices in general have blown through the roof in the US. People have flipped out, becuase it fucking sucks to have another bill to pay, where as in the past you barely thought about gas prices when going about your monthly budget. I'm not that damn old, however I remember when gas was under .90 cents a gallon - when I began driving.

Once more, it wasn't that long ago... And we are touching 4.00 a gallon now. In Europe, recently truckers have almost completely stopped in some areas, due to gas hitting almost 10.00 a gallon. Looks bad huh? Well, not exactly, to explain that, I will just ask you to keep in mind a few things. Let's get to it comrades. (I am sure many of you are much worse than comrades, but keep with it, for information's sake).

On the US side, sadly we have been spoiled for way, way to long. For some time frames during the last 30 years, we were the 2nd CHEAPEST country to purchase gas at the pump in, out of the top 33 industrialized nations.... 2nd Cheapest... With the largest economy, most money, and highest crude oil usage. Guess we should have called it, however, we didn't, it happens. As for Europe, they have been paying well over 3.00 a gallon for a long, long time. Now, I know I said 10.00 per Gallon, but remember this...

The US dollar has dropped more then 20% against other currencies in the last 5 years. That's a huge drop. The UK Pound for instance, has been at over 2.00 US dollars. While 10.00 is a lot, it is still 5.00 pounds a gallon. Adjusting for inflation.. They aren't paying any where close to the doubling and tripling US consumers are, as far as consumers cash out of pocket. Though I will note the truckers main issue has nothing to do with crude oil about to run out..  Europe taxes gas at sometimes as high as 70%... Compare that to the US taxing gas at 11 %, and you start to see the picture I have painted you - The issue in the UK has more to do with that than any theory. The issue looked much worse on Fox News and CNN, then it was in reality. They don't tell you about Europe's ridiculous gasoline taxes.. And again, sadly enough, all this speculation just makes oil prices go up, not down, without relying on the facts I have mentioned above.

Enough of current situation and examples for now, and on to Peak Oil theory. First off, when the peak oil theory was written, one issue arises. They did not take into consideration we would be able to dig deeper, dig different, and find more oil. Reality is, when the Titanic sank in 1912 no one could find it, and even if they did, no one could go deep enough to access it in the ocean. About 70 years later, it was found, touched and fondled,  due to technological breakthroughs and advances.

Guess what? the peak theory's main flaw when using it as a time line for oil depletion is basing all of its data on the presumption that we will not innovate to find even more conventional oil in places no one thought of or could reach/detect. Even now, the USGS has published a report possibly locating the largest oil reserve EVER in the US, including Alaska, with a new horizontal drilling technique. This is also assuming, oil is not a more abundant resource in conventional form.

What's next.. Well here is one you won't believe. But it is easy to prove, go do some Google searching and book reading, you will be amazed. All of these predictions do not include what is called "Unconventional Oil". This is oil which can be found in other forms as opposed to what is called "conventional" oil.  Examples are sources such as oil sands, and oil shale.

Oil sands, never heard of them? Notice how Venezuela has been launched into the world stage as of late? Yep. Oil sands. Oil sands in the Orinoco valley have made them a huge oil producer. To see this point, try to remember if you heard the word Venezuela more then twice a year, 15 years ago. Now how often do you hear it? They figured out how to tap into the oil sands, and refine the heavy crude.. An "Unconventional" source of oil. Wasn't taken into consideration when Hubbert was making his time frame predictions.
We are FUCKED! Oh wait, the experts forgot to include 70% of the pie chart in their oil depletion estimates.

To continue on unconventional oil, which is rarely included in reserves and not taken into consideration by the peak theories creator, the US has a great outlook. And by great, I mean amazing,  point in case is the fact that the US has 110 years worth of supply in proven Oil Shale resources… Get that? 110 fucking year. People are saying oil will be gone in the year 2020.. Let me say it once more. The US has proven oil shale reserves to last 110 years at the entire country's current consumption rate, and not import a single barrel for that 110 years.

Much to the chagrin of Peak Oil time frame lovers, and doomsday prediction fuckers,  all of this will be exploited in due time. Unconventional resources were thought to take more energy and money to extract then they were worth at the time when people were putting up these oil depletion estimates. The new reality with oil prices at over 100.00 a barrel, is that these prices are well over what the analysts said would be needed for big oil companies like Shell to start extracting these forms to make crude. Once more, keep in mind just a 10 years ago or so; the OPEC said oil would not go above 40.00 a barrel…

Long story short my people, don't get into the hype. At the very least, even assuming we can never find any more conventional oil, we have well over 100 years world over supply, just in unconventional oil reserves which are proven at THIS date. And don't worry, it's not impossible for us to use that oil shale. 95% of Estonia's energy comes from oil shale production. How much do you know about Estonia? Not much? Me either, but fact is if they can provide over 90 percent of there needs by utilizing oil shale, chances are the US can do it to, along with many other countries.

In the end, thank big oil. If no one else does anything, they will save us by extracting these unconventional resources, to make sure they stay big oil, and filthy rich of course.

So - sleep well. Once more, don't fall into the dooms day scenario. I hope the masses can continue to learn - Which is exactly what we are doing, by paying attention and looking for the reality of situation, instead of just accepting what others present to us.

Make sense?

If not, at the very least, as I said earlier - sleep well comrades. Go test drive that Ford F-250. You will be long dead before you will have trouble finding gas for it's tank.


Anonymous said...

This was a good read. Especially the part about them not even considering new innovations, and their original estimates didn't include the now known 70% of oil supplies. I also thought, it's ironic that the anti-oil people are the ones shouting about peak oil. The idea of peak oil allows oil companies to jack up the price and make more of a profit. My point is that the enemies of the anti-oil crowd are the benefactors from the over exaggerated idea.


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